Hypothesis of India-Pakistan Nuclear War

Both nations have built up large armies and have developed weapons of mass destruction primarily to defend themselves from each other. But in Pakistan situation is more gruesome then India because Pakistani military has grown so powerful and audacious licentious that it has ruled the nation for more than half of its existence and wielded humongous influence even when puppet civilian rulers are in office. Social and economic development of both nations impeded due to the continued arms race. They are condoning their people and have committed limited resources to address their serious problems such as poverty. Since both neighbors held nuclear weapons most of the people believed it will promote stability in the Indian subcontinent as an example of Cold War between the U.S and former the Soviet Union that how deterrence ensures military restraint.

But I am not convinced with this hypothesis. Firstly, unlike the U.S and the former Soviet Union, since independent these ardent foes have fought three wars and have a chronically ingrained hatred of one another with the ideology as Hindu nationalism versus Muslim fundamentalism. Secondly, the United States and former Soviet Union's nuclear assets truly represent the capability to destroy each other, beyond the recovery. While in India Pakistan scenarios, their nuclear arsenals have not any comparison than those of the cold war foes and their geographical size also matters. In fact, these two myopic and shortsighted neighbors cannot achieve such level of mutually assured destruction that stood as the ultimate deterrent during the Cold War; they can only reach the level of unimaginable loss of life, destruction on both sides and pollution of the rivers by radioactivity, destroying large dams resulting in massive disruption, economic consequences.  

Although more than a half-century past, India and Pakistan gained their independence ramifications of partition miseries, the wounds caused by the partition are not healed and continue to be felt in these two South Asian neighbors, over the top Kashmir issue is the bone of contention.

Due to Kashmir problem India has been bleeding since 1989 and it is just question of time when India’s patience will run out, then the only solution for India will be a war.

As a matter of fact, in a conventional war, Pakistan would not have any comparison to India. There is not any ambiguity that within no time India can thoroughly defeat Pakistan in a conventional war.  

Pakistan gets all its essential import including petroleum, which is very vital for the Pakistani Army, through Karachi port, which is the only operational port for Pakistan; Indian Navy is fully capable of a complete blockade of Karachi port, Pakistan will run out of petroleum in few days. On the contrary, India has dozens of ports both on its western and eastern coasts then Pakistan might be prepared to use nuclear weapons even if such an action seemed irrational.

The probability of the nuclear combat between these two ardent foes augments steadily. Pakistan needs to question whether its nuclear programme has done any good and where we are heading; I don’t think due to our nukes we are more secure or increase in self-esteem around the globe. The real danger and threat to Pakistan are not from India rather her very own, the terrorist organizations and groups running wild under the patronage of the army and growing intolerance. If Pakistan does not manipulate, set a bridle, and failed to curb these anti-civilization organizations and resolve the suppurating fester issue of Kashmir with India on realistic grounds, it is not a matter of if it will happen, but when, it depends on Indian patients.   

India-Pakistan hypothetical Nuclear War would kill over billion innocent People within a week because of the larger and denser populations of metropolitan cities on both sides and the higher level of combustible materials and fossil fuels available there, which increase the risk of firestorms, floods from destroyed dams, obliteration of potable water supply system and sewage system would be devastating for the remaining population and cause diseases epidemics among the ill-fated survivors. The destruction of major cities in both countries would also end at the social and political chaos, food production and distribution severely disrupt. This catastrophic situation would lead to famines, worst disasters India have experienced as the result of Great Famine of 1876–1878 the death toll from this famine estimated 29 million; and even this cannot be alleviated by international aid measures in a paroxysmal post-war environment.

It is difficult to determine the actual size and composition of India's and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals. If Pakistan and India use all their nukes against each other, it could lead to a global catastrophe, A huge amount of dust and smoke will be generated which will engulf the Earth’s stratosphere, prevent the sun’s rays from penetrating the Earth’s surface and begin a nuclear winter first prophesied during the cold war.

Nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to Pakistan and India and regretfully there are no serious plans to deal with this catastrophe. The use of weapons of mass destruction is the very worst way for nations to solve disputes.

Your comments even raving and ranting are welcome on my E-mail address: islamvsislam@hotmail.com

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