Possible aftermath of a referendum in Kashmir
In the case of India agree for a referendum in Kashmir due to any reason, India will allow in the Kashmir valley only because Jammu and Ladakh regions are Hindu and Buddhist majority areas.
In the scenario of any future possible referendum, both side Kashmiri people will have three options to vote for:
1. United Kashmir as a part of India
2. United Kashmir as a part of Pakistan, OR
3. Kashmir, as an independent country.
It is obvious that the first option is ruled out as Muslims in neither Pakistani held Kashmir nor Indian held Kashmir will opt to be a part of India.
The situation in Pakistan has completely changed since 1947, now Pakistan is a literally failed nation and country. Pakistani held Kashmiri leadership will think twice before any suicidal attempt to go to Pakistan now, due to the following reasons:
1) Pakistan is beset by Islamist extremists and sectarian Shia & Sunni violence in which majority Sunni community is killing scores of minority Shias in riots.
2) There is no law and order in all over the country including the former financial hub, the most populous city Karachi.
3) Punjabi domination has become a bane of Pakistan federalism.
4) Sindh is in the midst of a civil war and Sindhi nationalist leaders have started raising the demand of a separate country.
5) Baluchistan has never forgiven Pakistan’s rulers for what they have done to it. North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Baluchistan have never reconciled to the prolonged governance of the Punjab-dominated military and civilian establishment.
Hence Kashmiri Muslims will dither to become a part of Pakistan which still has not been able to accommodate to millions of Muslims who migrated there in 1947 from India.
In case of Kashmiri Muslims of both sides opt for an independent Kashmir as a country, and then it will balkanize Pakistan. Separation of Pakistani Kashmir will finally lead to cause Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to become free from the hold of Punjabis, an independent Kashmir is the worst scenario for Pakistan. In the real world, an independent Kashmir will be a new heaven for Taliban and their associates and dozens of factions will fight with each other viz another Afghanistan in the same region.
Disaster will not stop up to Pakistan only; it will cause serious threats and entanglements to India too, I can predicate that if India will let Kashmir go, then it may lead to a balkanization of India likewise. India has also much secessionist movement in North Eastern states Nagaland, Mizoram, and Assam. India may lose these states; Naxalite–Maoist insurgency will be more audacious and venturesome. Any such disaster in India would cause a further increase of secessionist movements in aspirant states of India, hence human miseries will not be curtailed in this region.
Finally, we, as a human being, still not civilized up to such level that we can curb our evil emotions and abstained brutalities against innocents and restrain from collective punishment for the whole nation. In the light of history all over the world and especially the Hindu-Muslim riots that took place during the partition in 1947 and although there was no prior history of any Hindu-Sikh riot, but fanatic Congress party leaders spontaneously organized mass genocide of Sikhs all over India after the killing of Indian Prime Minister Ms. Indira Gandhi by her two Sikh bodyguards. In the case of India let Kashmir go, trust me then it will be doomsday for Indian Muslims. Hindu terrorist and fundamentalists will mercilessly massacre them in millions all over India.